The fears of Europe and the Western world towards the U.S., with Trump at the forefront, lack any foundation. Successions of powers and alternation are what allow balancing the system. The changes that will take place in France, and then followed by The Netherlands and Germany will be the corollary of a balance that seeks to rebalance, guaranteeing stability and progress for all peoples.
When macroeconomic models want to be perpetuated, it is when the wisdom of the system is present; the wisdom of economies is of such importance that the changes are marking the step, where in the end the analyst hears when the market speaks.
When Obama received the economy plagued with financial scandals and the explosion of the real estate bubble, it caused black holes that have not been closed. A banking system had to be formed to absorb these liabilities – a serious mistake was made in my opinion not to let the system go bankrupt – measures like the famous quantitative easing (QE) were taken, followed by direct injection of huge amounts of money by the FED to give support and buoyancy to the system.
All these measures that have been applauded so much in the world, today are replicated in a certain way in Europe, and they do not indicate in any way that the economic system of the U.S.A. and the world are healthy. America’s public debt exceeds 18 trillion Dollars or 103% of the GDP of its economy, in my opinion that figure is around 120% of its GDP.
Energy independence with oil and shale gas has allowed and will allow the US to pay off those monstrously high liabilities that have not disappeared, thus generating real-world figures never seen in conjunction with gigantic private public investment policies.
The U.S. has made OPEC and other non-member producers like Mexico, Norway and Russia, not to put the American economy against the ropes. We have seen a first scenario where Saudi Arabia made a price war, lowering them to numbers close to the US $ 25 a barrel, with the purpose of breaking the shale industry in the USA – they have failed to do so – they succeeded in breaking down small and medium-sized enterprises, while the northern giant has managed to smash whole economies like Venezuela’s and to put at risk the ones of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Mexico, etc.
Meanwhile the U.S. has a 15-year lead over shale extraction technologies, each time with a lower cut-off; this guarantees it to exploit its deposits or in the worst case, import cheap crude. Be it one or the other, the USA has achieved its total independence and its condition as a player in the world’s horizon will prevail its hegemonic condition. In a good summary: the house wins.
At the same time, the U.S. is projecting to renewable energies, first condition to lead the world on its way to the future and to its global prosperity.
There will be a rate hike in the Federal Reserve in the US. It is an independent power, today it will be ¼ of a point, but what is predicted is successive rate hikes. Janet Yellen will try to do it more slowly, but at the end of her term, no one will stop Trump. His objectives are to make the US a big nation, it is not populism. The dollar can be revalued up to 20%; it is all about balancing and monetary balance, not protectionism.
My dear readers please draw your own conclusions. Until next time!